environmental

A Bayesian Model for 20th Century Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Reconstruction

Antarctic sea ice, a key component in the complex Antarctic climate system, is an important driver and indicator of the global climate. In the relatively short satellite-observed period from 1979 to 2022 the sea ice extent has continuously increased …

A New Record Minimum for Antarctic Sea Ice

Antarctic sea ice extent reached a new record low of 1.965 million km2 on 23 February 2022. This extent is approximately 32% below climatological values and might indicate a transition to new, more extreme, annual fluctuations.

A Regime Shift in Seasonal Total Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the Twentieth Century

In stark contrast to the Arctic, there have been statistically significant positive trends in total Antarctic sea ice extent since 1979. However, the short and highly variable nature of observed Antarctic sea ice extent limits the ability to fully …

Eighteen-year record of circum-Antarctic landfast-sea-ice distribution allows detailed baseline characterisation and reveals trends and variability

Landfast sea ice (fast ice) is an important though poorly understood component of the cryosphere on the Antarctic continental shelf, where it plays a key role in atmosphere–ocean–ice-sheet interaction and coupled ecological and biogeochemical …

An Assessment of the Temporal Variability in the Annual Cycle of Daily Antarctic Sea Ice in the NCAR Community Earth System Model, Version 2: A Comparison of the Historical Runs with Observations

Understanding the variability of Antarctic sea ice is an ongoing challenge given the limitations of observed data. Coupled climate model simulations present the opportunity to examine this variability in Antarctic sea ice. Here, the daily sea ice …

Modeling the annual cycle of daily Antarctic sea ice extent

The total Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) experiences a distinct annual cycle, peaking in September and reaching its minimum in February. In this paper we propose a mathematical and statistical decomposition of this temporal variation in SIE. Each …

Modeling wildfire ignition origins in southern California using linear network point processes

This paper focuses on spatial and temporal modeling of point processes on linear networks. Point processes on linear networks can simply be defined as point events occurring on or near line segment network structures embedded in a certain space. A …

Bayesian inference for finite populations under spatial process settings

We develop a Bayesian model–based approach to finite population estimation accounting for spatial dependence. Our innovation here is a framework that achieves inference for finite population quantities in spatial process settings. A key distinction …

Model-Based Combination of Spatial Information for Stream Networks

Evolutionary improvements in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) now routinely allow the management and mapping of spatial-temporal information. In response, the development of statistical models to combine information of different types and spatial …

Incorporating Utilization Distributions into the Study of Resource Selection: Dealing With Spatial Autocorrelation

An accurate estimate of resource use by an animal can be summarized by regressing local- and landscape level resources on an individual animal’s or population’s utilization distribution (UD) in a spatially explicit way. The resulting equation is …