epidemiology

Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia

In this paper we undertake a scientific study of a COVID-19 outbreak in Sukhbaatar, Mongolia. We do so by analyzing data collected via contact tracing of cases by the rapid response team. We use a novel statistical model of the transmission networks …

Modeling the Visibility Distribution for Respondent-Driven Sampling with Application to Population Size Estimation

We develop a method for improved estimation of a participant’s inclusion probability based on their network size (degree) as well as other information.

Exposure Notification System activity as a leading indicator for SARS-COV-2 caseload forecasting

We show that smartphone based Exposure Notification systems can significantly improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of COVID-19 caseloads.

Tool for tracking all-cause mortality and estimating excess mortality to support the COVID-19 pandemic response

A method was developed to track all-cause mortality (ACM) and an online open-source user-friendly interface was developed for its use.

Estimating asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: a cohort study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Background: The rapid increase in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases worldwide has raised concerns of viral transmission from individuals displaying no or delayed clinical symptoms. We quantified the transmission potential of …

Population Size Estimation Using Multiple Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is commonly used to study hard-to-reach populations since traditional methods are unable to efficiently survey members due to the typically highly stigmatized nature of the population. The number of people in these …

A Simulation-Based Framework for Assessing the Feasibility of Respondent-Driven Sampling for Estimating Characteristics in Populations of Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual Older Adults

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a method for sampling from a target population by leveraging social connections. RDS is invaluable to the study of hard-to-reach populations. However, RDS is costly and can be infeasible. RDS is infeasible when …

Methods for Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

Respondent-driven sampling is a commonly used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations connected by an underlying social network of relations. Beginning with a convenience sample, participants pass coupons to invite their contacts to …

Evaluating Variance Estimators for Respondent‐Driven Sampling

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is a network-based method for sampling hard-to-reach populations that is widely used by public health agencies and researchers worldwide. Estimation of population characteristics from RDS data is challenging due to …

Modeling Concurrency and Selective Mixing in Heterosexual Partnership Networks with Applications to Sexually Transmitted Diseases

Network-based models for sexually transmitted disease transmission rely on initial partnership networks incorporating structures that may be related to risk of infection. In particular, initial networks should reflect the level of concurrency and …