epidemiology

Enhancing spatially-disaggregated simulations with large language models

We develop a method for improved estimation of a participant’s inclusion probability based on their network size (degree) as well as other information.

Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia

In this paper we undertake a scientific study of a COVID-19 outbreak in Sukhbaatar, Mongolia. We do so by analyzing data collected via contact tracing of cases by the rapid response team. We use a novel statistical model of the transmission networks …

Modeling the Visibility Distribution for Respondent-Driven Sampling with Application to Population Size Estimation

We develop a method for improved estimation of a participant’s inclusion probability based on their network size (degree) as well as other information.

Exposure Notification System activity as a leading indicator for SARS-COV-2 caseload forecasting

We show that smartphone based Exposure Notification systems can significantly improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of COVID-19 caseloads.

Tool for tracking all-cause mortality and estimating excess mortality to support the COVID-19 pandemic response

A method was developed to track all-cause mortality (ACM) and an online open-source user-friendly interface was developed for its use.

Estimating asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection: a cohort study in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Background: The rapid increase in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases worldwide has raised concerns of viral transmission from individuals displaying no or delayed clinical symptoms. We quantified the transmission potential of …

Population Size Estimation Using Multiple Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is commonly used to study hard-to-reach populations since traditional methods are unable to efficiently survey members due to the typically highly stigmatized nature of the population. The number of people in these …

A Simulation-Based Framework for Assessing the Feasibility of Respondent-Driven Sampling for Estimating Characteristics in Populations of Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual Older Adults

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is a method for sampling from a target population by leveraging social connections. RDS is invaluable to the study of hard-to-reach populations. However, RDS is costly and can be infeasible. RDS is infeasible when …

Methods for Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

Respondent-driven sampling is a commonly used method for sampling from hard-to-reach human populations connected by an underlying social network of relations. Beginning with a convenience sample, participants pass coupons to invite their contacts to …

Evaluating Variance Estimators for Respondent‐Driven Sampling

Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) is a network-based method for sampling hard-to-reach populations that is widely used by public health agencies and researchers worldwide. Estimation of population characteristics from RDS data is challenging due to …