Featured Publications

A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica’s Sea Ice System

From 1979 to 2016, total Antarctic sea ice extent experienced a positive trend with record winter maxima in 2012 and 2014. Record …

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock

February 2025 Nature - Communications Earth & Environment statistical-climatology, environmental

Code Dataset Project DOI

A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica’s Sea Ice System: Data and Code Repository

This repository contains the R source code and derived data products to reproduce analyses in the paper: ‘A Twenty-First Century …

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock

February 2025 Zenodo statistical-climatology, environmental

Code Dataset DOI

A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica’s Sea Ice System: Data and Code Repository

Enhancing spatially-disaggregated simulations with large language models

We integrate large language models (LLMs) into various statistical models for epidemics so that spatial epidemics are better represented.

Ilya Zaslavsky, Jiaxi Lei, Rishi Graham, Mark S. Handcock, Eliah Aronoff-Spencer

December 2024 ICoMS 2024 modeling, Natural language processing, epidemiology

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Enhancing spatially-disaggregated simulations with large language models

A Bayesian Model for 20th Century Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Reconstruction

Antarctic sea ice, a key component in the complex Antarctic climate system, is an important driver and indicator of the global climate. …

Thomas J. Maierhofer, Marilyn N. Raphael, Ryan L. Fogt, Mark S. Handcock

October 2024 Earth and Space Science statistical-climatology, environmental

PDF Code Dataset DOI

A Bayesian Model for 20th Century Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Reconstruction

Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia

In this paper we undertake a scientific study of a COVID-19 outbreak in Sukhbaatar, Mongolia. We do so by analyzing data collected via …

February 2024 Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses epidemiology

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Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia

Recent publications

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock (2025). A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica’s Sea Ice System. Nature - Communications Earth & Environment.

Code Dataset Project DOI

Marilyn N. Raphael, Thomas J. Maierhofer, Ryan L. Fogt, William R. Hobbs, Mark S. Handcock (2025). A Twenty-First Century Structural Change in Antarctica’s Sea Ice System: Data and Code Repository. Zenodo.

Code Dataset DOI

Ilya Zaslavsky, Jiaxi Lei, Rishi Graham, Mark S. Handcock, Eliah Aronoff-Spencer (2024). Enhancing spatially-disaggregated simulations with large language models. ICoMS 2024.

PDF DOI

Thomas J. Maierhofer, Marilyn N. Raphael, Ryan L. Fogt, Mark S. Handcock (2024). A Bayesian Model for 20th Century Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Reconstruction. Earth and Space Science.

PDF Code Dataset DOI

Davaalkham Dambadarjaa, Tsogt Mend, Andrew Shapiro, Undram Mandakh, Temuulen Enebish, Linh-Vi Le, Darwin Bandoy, Ambaselmaa Amarjargal, Bilegt Altangerel, Tuvshintur Chuluunbaatar, Uugantsetseg Guruuchin, Oyuntulkhuur Lkhagvajav, Oyunsuren Enebish, Mark S. Handcock (2024). Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses.

PDF DOI

Katherine R. McLaughlin, Lisa G. Johnston, Xhevat Jakupi, Dafina Gexha-Bunjaku, Edona Deva, Mark S. Handcock (2024). Modeling the Visibility Distribution for Respondent-Driven Sampling with Application to Population Size Estimation. The Annals of Applied Statistics.

PDF Code DOI

Duncan A. Clark, Mark S. Handcock (2024). Causal Inference over Stochastic Networks. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A.

PDF Code DOI

Eliah Aronoff-Spencer, Sepideh Mazrouee, Rishi Graham, Mark S. Handcock, Kevin Nguyen, Camille Nebeker, Mohsen Malekinejad, Christopher A. Longhurst (2023). Exposure Notification System activity as a leading indicator for SARS-COV-2 caseload forecasting. PLOS One.

PDF Code DOI

Zeyi Wang, Ian E. Fellows, Mark S. Handcock (2023). Understanding Networks with Exponential-family Random Network Models. Social Networks.

PDF Code Dataset DOI

Laxman Dahal, Henry Burton, Mark S. Handcock (2023). Comparative assessment of alternative methods for evaluating the optimality of ground motion intensity measures using woodframe buildings. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering.

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See all publications since 2010. A full list is in the CV.

Books

Divergent Paths: Economic Mobility in the New American Labor Market

The promise of upward mobility—the notion that everyone has the chance to get ahead—is one of this country’s most cherished …

Annette B. Bernhardt, Martina Morris, Mark S. Handcock, Marc A. Scott

June 2001 Russell Sage Foundation sampling, inequality, social justice

Code Project Poster Source Document

Divergent Paths: Economic Mobility in the New American Labor Market

Relative Distribution Methods in the Social Sciences

In social science research, differences among groups or changes over time are a common focus of study. While means and variances are …

Mark S. Handcock, Martina Morris

October 1999 Springer-Verlag sampling, inequality, social justice

PDF Code Dataset Slides DOI

Relative Distribution Methods in the Social Sciences

A Casebook for a First Course in Statistics and Data Analysis

The most effective way to learn statistics is by actively engaging in doing the statistical analysis. This idea drives this casebook. …

Samprit Chatterjee, Mark S. Handcock, Jeffrey S. Simonoff

April 1995 Wiley, New York teaching, applications

Code Dataset Project

A Casebook for a First Course in Statistics and Data Analysis

Some older working papers at the University of Washington

Model-based Assessment of the Impact of Missing Data on Inference for Networks

Most inference using social network models assumes that the presence or absence of all relations is known. This is rarely the case. …

Krista J. Gile, Mark S. Handcock

September 2006 CSSS Working Paper #66 network-modeling

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Model-based Assessment of the Impact of Missing Data on Inference for Networks

Alleviating Linear Ecological Bias and Optimal Design with Subsample Data

In this paper, we illustrate that combining ecological data with subsample data in situations in which a linear model is appropriate …

Adam Glynn, Jon Wakefield, Mark S. Handcock, Thomas Richardson

September 2005 CSSS Working Paper #51 sampling, methodology

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Alleviating Linear Ecological Bias and Optimal Design with Subsample Data

Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach

In many situations information from a sample of individuals can be supplemented by population level information on the relationship …

Sanjay Chaudhuri, Mark S. Handcock, Michael S. Rendall

May 2005 CSSS Working Paper #48 demography, sampling, methodology

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Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach

Model-Based Clustering for Social Networks

Network models are widely used to represent relations among interacting units or actors. Network data often exhibit transitivity, …

Mark S. Handcock, Adrian E. Raftery, Jeremy M. Tantrum

April 2005 CSSS Working Paper #46 network-modeling, methodology

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Model-Based Clustering for Social Networks

Inference in curved exponential family models for networks

Network data arise in a wide variety of applications. Although descriptive statistics for networks abound in the literature, the …

David R. Hunter, Mark S. Handcock

August 2004 CSSS Working Paper #43 network-modeling

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Inference in curved exponential family models for networks

Goodness of Fit of Social Network Models

We present a systematic examination of real network datasets using maximum likelihood estimation for exponential random graph models as …

David R. Hunter, Steven M. Goodreau, Mark S. Handcock

April 2004 CSSS Working Paper #47 network-modeling

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Goodness of Fit of Social Network Models

New specifications for exponential random graph models

The most promising class of statistical models for expressing structural properties of social networks is the class of Exponential …

Tom A.B. Snijders, Philippa E. Pattison, Garry L. Robins, Mark S. Handcock

April 2004 CSSS Working Paper #42 network-modeling

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New specifications for exponential random graph models

Positional Estimation Within a Latent Space Model for Networks

Recent advances in latent space and related random effects models hold much promise for representing network data. The inherent …

Susan Shortreed, Mark S. Handcock

April 2004 CSSS Working Paper #41 network-modeling

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Positional Estimation Within a Latent Space Model for Networks

Assessing Degeneracy in Statistical Models of Social Networks

This paper presents recent advances in the statistical modeling of random graphs that have an impact on the empirical study of social …

Mark S. Handcock

December 2003 CSSS Working Paper #39 network-modeling

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Assessing Degeneracy in Statistical Models of Social Networks

Generalised Linear Models Incorporating Population Level Information: An Empirical Likelihood Based Approach

Regression coefficients specify the partial effect of a regressor on the dependent variable. Sometimes the bivariate, or limited …

Mark S. Handcock, Michael S. Rendall, Jacob E. Cheadle

September 2003 CSSS Working Paper #36 methodology

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On 'Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds,' models and inference for Sexual partnership distributions

Recent work has focused attention on statistical inference for the population distribution of the number of sexual partners based on …

Mark S. Handcock, James Holland Jones, Martina Morris

May 2003 CSSS Working Paper #31 network-modeling, methodology, epidemiology

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On 'Sexual contacts and epidemic thresholds,' models and inference for Sexual partnership distributions

Interval Estimates for Epidemic Thresholds in Two-Sex Network Models

Epidemic thresholds in network models of heterogeneous populations characterized by highly right-skewed contact distributions can be …

Mark S. Handcock, James Holland Jones

March 2003 CSSS Working Paper #44 network-modeling, methodology, epidemiology

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Interval Estimates for Epidemic Thresholds in Two-Sex Network Models

Likelihood-Based Inference for Stochastic Models of Sexual Network Formation

Sexually-Transmitted Diseases (STDs) constitute a major public health concern. Mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of …

Mark S. Handcock, James Holland Jones

January 2003 CSSS Working Paper #29 network-modeling, methodology, epidemiology

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Likelihood-Based Inference for Stochastic Models of Sexual Network Formation

Applying Relative Distribution Methods in R

Relative distribution methods are a nonparametric statistical approach to the comparison of distributions. These methods combine the …

Mark S. Handcock, Eric M. Aldrich

December 2002 CSSS Working Paper #27 inequality, social justice

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Applying Relative Distribution Methods in R

An Assessment of Preferential Attachment as a Mechanism for Human Sexual Network Formation

Recent research into the properties of human sexual contact networks has suggested that the degree distribution of the contact graph …

James Holland Jones, Mark S. Handcock

October 2002 CSSS Working Paper #23 network-modeling, epidemiology

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An Assessment of Preferential Attachment as a Mechanism for Human Sexual Network Formation

Statistical Evidence Tells Tails of Human Sexual Contacts

There has been a growing interest in the application of social network theory to the epidemiology of sexually-transmitted diseases …

James Holland Jones, Mark S. Handcock

May 2002 CSSS Working Paper #21 network-modeling, epidemiology

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Statistical Evidence Tells Tails of Human Sexual Contacts