Population Size Estimation Using Multiple Respondent-Driven Sampling Surveys

Abstract

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is commonly used to study hard-to-reach populations since traditional methods are unable to efficiently survey members due to the typically highly stigmatized nature of the population. The number of people in these populations is of primary global health and demographic interest and is usually hard to estimate. However, due to the nature of RDS, current methods of population size estimation are insufficient. We introduce a new method of estimating population size that uses concepts from capture-recapture methods while modeling RDS as a successive sampling process. We assess its statistical validity using information from the CDC’s National HIV Behavioral Surveillance system in 2009 and 2012.