epidemiology

I have developed statistical models and tools for tracking all-cause mortality and estimating excess mortality. This is to support the COVID-19 pandemic response. These tools are being used by the World Health Organization (WHO).

In this paper we undertake a scientific study of a COVID-19 outbreak in Sukhbaatar, Mongolia. We do so by analyzing data collected via contact tracing of cases by the rapid response team. We use a novel statistical model of the transmission networks …

We show that smartphone based Exposure Notification systems can significantly improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting of COVID-19 caseloads.

Background: The rapid increase in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases worldwide has raised concerns of viral transmission from individuals displaying no or delayed clinical symptoms. We quantified the transmission potential of …

Background and Objectives: The prevalence of trichomoniasis in the general population of the United States is unknown. This study provides the first population-based prevalence estimates of trichomo- niasis among young adults in the United States. …

Objectives: We measured and compared the concentration of primary and secondary syphilis, gonorrhea, chlamydial infection, and genital herpes in a large county with urban, suburban, and rural settings. Methods: We geocoded sexually transmitted …

This is a reply to Dr Gaydos and colleagues following their comments on our paper 'Prevalence of Chlamydial and Gonococcal Infections among Young Adults', Journal of the American Medical Association, May 12, 2004, 291 (18):2229-2236. DOI: …

Context: Chlamydial and gonococcal infections are important causes of pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancy, and infertility. Although screening for Chlamydia trachomatis is widely recommended among young adult women, little information is …

Objectives: We estimated HIV prevalence rates among young adults in the United States. Methods: We used survey data from the third wave of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, a random sample of nearly 19000 young adults initiated in …

Distributions of the number of sexual partners reported in surveys show a pronounced skew, with most people having had one or no partners in the past year and a small fraction having had many. Liljeros and colleagues infer from the results of a …