Exponential-Family Random Graph Models

We show that inference based on a variational mean-field approximation to the likelihood of an Exponential-family Random Graph Model (ERGM) performs poorly for realistic models. We show that established alternatives, including MCMC-MLE, MPLE, sampled MPLE, and tapered ERGM-based inference, achieve superior accuracy and computational performance in situations that the mean-field approximation was designed for.

Network-based models for sexually transmitted disease transmission rely on initial partnership networks incorporating structures that may be related to risk of infection. In particular, initial networks should reflect the level of concurrency and …